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Zephyr One/Zero

Obama gun boom ends: Background checks fall from record-breaking 2016

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It was bound to happen, and now the market is propped up by super low prices. I wonder when prices will rise to normal levels, but for now buy what you need!

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It was bound to happen, and now the market is propped up by super low prices. I wonder when prices will rise to normal levels, but for now buy what you need!

It was only a 10% drop in sales over the prior year. I do not believe we are going to see prices rebound for some time. It is extremely unlikely to happen in 2018.

 

I have shows coming up in February to buy guns for the following 6 months. I am seeing some crazy deals on some guns. Buy 3 get 1 free is unheard of and that is what is out there.

 

A lot of the promotions going on up until now have been rebates to the consumer. That is because they can be set up quickly and rolled out. Now, you will start to see some serious low shelf prices. Which gives me an idea. For a new thread.

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We have market saturation...

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We have market saturation...

Not necessarily, if prices are low enough folks will always buy more regardless of need. Passing up a great deal goes against human nature! Edited by gmor

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It was only a 10% drop in sales over the prior year. I do not believe we are going to see prices rebound for some time. It is extremely unlikely to happen in 2018.

 

I have shows coming up in February to buy guns for the following 6 months. I am seeing some crazy deals on some guns. Buy 3 get 1 free is unheard of and that is what is out there.

 

A lot of the promotions going on up until now have been rebates to the consumer. That is because they can be set up quickly and rolled out. Now, you will start to see some serious low shelf prices. Which gives me an idea. For a new thread.

We were told that the cheap prices post election were due to excessive inventory built up for the anticipated panic buying after a Clinton victory. Now that inventory has been long sold off but prices are still dropping. I guess manufacturers are just cranking out guns to keep the factories rolling??? Edited by gmor

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It was retailers who stocked deep who had to slash prices. There are wholesalers in the same position. But the thing with slashed prices on ARs is that had an effect on other guns. $300 ARs mean people spend the $300 on the AR and pass on other guns. So now the overstock is branching out into all other guns and those prices are dropping as well.

 

Just remember, every boom has a bust. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust. That last boom was 8 years long, 16 if you think about it. It will be a huge bust.

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It was retailers who stocked deep who had to slash prices. There are wholesalers in the same position. But the thing with slashed prices on ARs is that had an effect on other guns. $300 ARs mean people spend the $300 on the AR and pass on other guns. So now the overstock is branching out into all other guns and those prices are dropping as well.

 

Just remember, every boom has a bust. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust. That last boom was 8 years long, 16 if you think about it. It will be a huge bust.

So don't buy fireams companies stock?

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If I bought a gun the system would go into overload because it would not what to do. They everybody would be out of luck on buying a new gun.

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If I bought a gun the system would go into overload because it would not what to do. They everybody would be out of luck on buying a new gun.

Who are you kidding. You buying a new gun would be an extinction level event. Not one of us would survive.

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It was still the second highest sales year ever.

 

Exactly !

People are still buying a heck of a lot of guns.

 

The tide continues to turn in our favor.

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It was retailers who stocked deep who had to slash prices. There are wholesalers in the same position. But the thing with slashed prices on ARs is that had an effect on other guns. $300 ARs mean people spend the $300 on the AR and pass on other guns. So now the overstock is branching out into all other guns and those prices are dropping as well.

 

Just remember, every boom has a bust. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust. That last boom was 8 years long, 16 if you think about it. It will be a huge bust.

 

In the next year or so, will there be a better time to buy a gun than now, Lon ?

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DUPE

Edited by Retcop

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So don't buy fireams companies stock?

I wouldn't go that far. I believe the gun companies are still going to be highly profitable. Why? because as the economy roars back to life people are going to find they have more disposable income and will be buying more guns so that when oprah gets elected they can sell them at a profit.

 

 

In the next year or so, will there be a better time to buy a gun than now, Lon ?

It is always a good time to buy a gun. I don't see the industry crashing, just more thought put in to new products and maintaining a profit.

 

That said, this year is an election year. If it looks like the democrats are going to take control of congress then there may be a rekindle of the panic. Our gun rights will never be "safe" because we still don't summarily shoot those who wish to take them away. Even when they think nothing of shooting us and then blaming us for "the gun problem", which really is a mental health issue or a lack of mental health on the left.

 

Seriously, I believe the prices you see this summer will be as good as it is going to get. Those firearms that are in high demand will not see the deep discounts as those which are economy models.

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I wouldn't go that far. I believe the gun companies are still going to be highly profitable. Why? because as the economy roars back to life people are going to find they have more disposable income and will be buying more guns so that when oprah gets elected they can sell them at a profit.

 

It is always a good time to buy a gun. I don't see the industry crashing, just more thought put in to new products and maintaining a profit.

 

That said, this year is an election year. If it looks like the democrats are going to take control of congress then there may be a rekindle of the panic. Our gun rights will never be "safe" because we still don't summarily shoot those who wish to take them away. Even when they think nothing of shooting us and then blaming us for "the gun problem", which really is a mental health issue or a lack of mental health on the left.

 

Seriously, I believe the prices you see this summer will be as good as it is going to get. Those firearms that are in high demand will not see the deep discounts as those which are economy models.

 

Thanks, Lon.

I really need to pick up a decent bolt action. For right now, not worried about heirloom quality.

It is a huge whole in my collection, although the 8mm Mauser is good for certain things.

It is amazing to be how accurate even some of less expensive rifles are.

Savage's new hunting rifle stock Accu something that adjusts all kinds of ways. looks great, but the durability of the cheek piece concerns me.

But that was an 1,100 MSRP. It is not a good looking stock, but it was designed for function, and to get rid of the bad things common to "classic" stocks, like having to raise your head up to see the scope, recoil directed straight to the face, etc

 

I saw of a review of an Ruger American and 2 Ruger PDR's and the groups were all under an inch MOA, with the American's groups only barely larger.

They were in 6mm Creedmore. That American amazed me for what it could do, and it is not the only one out there.

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There are a lot of inexpensive bolt actions which shoot entirely too well to be considered cheap rifles. The Ruger American Predator is very nice except for the cheap plastic stock. I picked up some Ruger Americans in .270 at a very good price. And in years past I have gotten some of them in other calibers as free goods. Buy 8 get 1 free with the free one being a special edition. Bad thing about Illinois is bolt action rifles are slow sellers so it will be hard to find a shop that got the free goods.

 

A few years back they had blue digital camo and were in .270 or .308. They have also done copper colored stocks and a "Wolf pattern camo" all within the last 3 or 4 years. If you keep your eyes open for those in shops you may be able to haggle the dealer down as he really doesn't have an investment in it unless he doesn't follow the numbers in his business.

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How can they make money selling guns at these prices?

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How can they make money selling guns at these prices?

Because for the past 8 years they have been charging more than they really needed to.

 

I like to use the Ruger LCP as my example. 3 years ago they dropped the price on them overnight by $100. Was it that they suddenly discovered a way to make them for $100 less? No. It was that they had been charging what the market would bear since they started making them. People were willing to spend $300 on a pocket gun and that was what was being offered by everyone.

 

Ruger dropped their price by $100 and redefined pricing on the entire category. Manufacturers either followed suit or quit the category.

 

Everyone seems to think that firearms manufacturers operate on the same razor thin profit margins that dealers work with and that is categorically false. Manufacturers operate at a much higher profit margin than dealers. They set the prices at what the market will bear. In boom times they can set them high, in bust times they can set them lower and still be making money.

 

And we have to remember that the "Obama Boom" was for the most part confined to "Assault rifles". Sales have slowed on them since 2016 without question but they only made up a small fraction of the guns that were being purchased during that time. Sales on concealable handguns dominated the sales then and continue to dominate the sales now. Sales for those categories remain strong.

 

And we are still selling most of the categories which weren't the targets of the antigunners at rates consistent with those before and during the boom. All of the gun control talk and potential legislation never targeted over/under shotguns for instance.

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How can they make money selling guns at these prices?

Its called business.

 

If a company makes $1 making one part or $1 making two parts, its still $1. Its called a "Sale". It's what you do when you have excess inventory and or manufacturing capacity to increase volume.

 

Like Gshad posted, we have market saturation, everyone that wanted a gun either has one or now that there's little political pressure to buy one before they are banned rather than let their famillies suffer to get one can take a breather.

 

Its good times for us gun collectors. Like a down stock market, its the time to buy and not sell. Its called "Capitalism"..

 

Tj

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Because for the past 8 years they have been charging more than they really needed to.

 

I like to use the Ruger LCP as my example. 3 years ago they dropped the price on them overnight by $100. Was it that they suddenly discovered a way to make them for $100 less? No. It was that they had been charging what the market would bear since they started making them. People were willing to spend $300 on a pocket gun and that was what was being offered by everyone.

 

Ruger dropped their price by $100 and redefined pricing on the entire category. Manufacturers either followed suit or quit the category.

 

Everyone seems to think that firearms manufacturers operate on the same razor thin profit margins that dealers work with and that is categorically false. Manufacturers operate at a much higher profit margin than dealers. They set the prices at what the market will bear. In boom times they can set them high, in bust times they can set them lower and still be making money.

 

And we have to remember that the "Obama Boom" was for the most part confined to "Assault rifles". Sales have slowed on them since 2016 without question but they only made up a small fraction of the guns that were being purchased during that time. Sales on concealable handguns dominated the sales then and continue to dominate the sales now. Sales for those categories remain strong.

 

And we are still selling most of the categories which weren't the targets of the antigunners at rates consistent with those before and during the boom. All of the gun control talk and potential legislation never targeted over/under shotguns for instance.

It is still hard for me to understand how any money was made by selling me a Remington RM380 for $99? Edited by gmor

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It is still hard for me to understand how any money was made by selling me Remington RM380 for $99?

Maybe because it only cost them $60 to produce? Profit is profit. If they can sell 10,000 of them with say, $40 profit each, would they rather do that than sell 1000 of them with a profit of $70? My number is a guess, but they're not going to sell them for a loss. They're making money on every sale. If they can sell more, then they make more. Profit is profit, whether it's 15% or 150%. As long as everyone is making money, why get in the way of it? It may not be $100 a gun profit, but that's not what has to happen to make a business grow.

 

Machined parts and molded plastics are dead cheap to make, and only take semi-skilled labor to assemble. There's no hand fitting, every part is interchangeable. Even if the slide is forged, it's still cheap to do on such a small part. It's probably investment cast steel, making it dirt cheap to manufacture. Most of the internals are probably either stamped parts, or MIM, or plastic, all of which are dirt cheap methods. Most guns cost very little to manufacture. The real cost is in the initial engineering and bringing it to market initially. After that, it's just mass production. Some higher order QC, but beyond that? Dead simple, and cheap.

 

Other industries do it too. My son busted a marker light on his car. Through the dealer, the Chinese made light housing was $140. I ordered the same Chinese made light housing for $9 online. It's an injection molded part glued together. Actual cost to make the thing is probably less than $1 to the factory in China, with almost all of it being automated and they can churn out those lights by the tens of thousands per day. How can they make money? Economy of scale, and the actual cost for making their product is dirt cheap, even if the finished product is a beautiful, reliable doo-dad. Profit is profit.

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Maybe because it only cost them $60 to produce? Profit is profit. If they can sell 10,000 of them with say, $40 profit each, would they rather do that than sell 1000 of them with a profit of $70? My number is a guess, but they're not going to sell them for a loss. They're making money on every sale. If they can sell more, then they make more. Profit is profit, whether it's 15% or 150%. As long as everyone is making money, why get in the way of it? It may not be $100 a gun profit, but that's not what has to happen to make a business grow.

 

Machined parts and molded plastics are dead cheap to make, and only take semi-skilled labor to assemble. There's no hand fitting, every part is interchangeable. Even if the slide is forged, it's still cheap to do on such a small part. It's probably investment cast steel, making it dirt cheap to manufacture. Most of the internals are probably either stamped parts, or MIM, or plastic, all of which are dirt cheap methods. Most guns cost very little to manufacture. The real cost is in the initial engineering and bringing it to market initially. After that, it's just mass production. Some higher order QC, but beyond that? Dead simple, and cheap.

 

Other industries do it too. My son busted a marker light on his car. Through the dealer, the Chinese made light housing was $140. I ordered the same Chinese made light housing for $9 online. It's an injection molded part glued together. Actual cost to make the thing is probably less than $1 to the factory in China, with almost all of it being automated and they can churn out those lights by the tens of thousands per day. How can they make money? Economy of scale, and the actual cost for making their product is dirt cheap, even if the finished product is a beautiful, reliable doo-dad. Profit is profit.

But then there needs to be profit for the manufacturer, distributor and merchant. If they all can eek out some profit from my $99 all that I can say is that I am more than a little impressed with their efficiency! American made too! Edited by gmor

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But then there needs to be profit for the manufacturer, distributor and merchant. If they all can eek out some profit from my $99 all that I can say is that I am more than a little impressed with their efficiency! American made too!

In that particular case and the R51, and the RP9 in particular, Remington is probably losing money on these and will likely exit the category. Sales on the items were soft. Really soft.

 

After the disastrous launch of the R51 and then the $100 price cut to the LCP by Ruger right after the RM380 came out, the release of the Hi Point look alike RP9 was expected to be a complete failure and it was. In a way it is kind of showing what happens when you put non "gun people" in charge of gun companies. It may seem like the thing to do, make a compact 380, or a polymer 9 and you should make money because everyone else is.

 

The R51 was actually a good pistol beset by manufacturing difficulties on the first release. Likely the people putting them together knew they were crap and the higher ups decided they needed to launch anyway because they had so much money tied up in it.

 

Even then I bet they are not losing much and are likely still making bank on all of their other items.

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