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gmor

Harley-Davidson in Decline?

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I read that H-D is closing its Kansas City plant and consolidating operation to the York PA facility. Apparently sales are sharply in decline and the stock price is tumbling. This is sad on various levels for me as a 22 year Harley owner and the holder of 250 shares of their stock, not to mention the decline of a proud American institution. In my opinion the company woes are largely the result of changing demographics with the Harley crowd getting older and younger riders choosing other options. I think they tried to counter this trend over the years with the V-Rod, the Buell line and more recently the introduction of the Street 500cc and 750cc models. While I have not closely followed their market/sales recently it seems to me that these attempts to broaden the demographics were largely unsuccessful. The V-Rod was quietly dropped from the 2018 catalog and of course the Buell line was discontinued in 2009. I'm not familiar with the 500/750 Street models but I haven't noticed any on the road and I would suspect their popularity is very limited? It somehow seems akin to what if beer sales were declining so Anheuser Busch decided to enter the wine market? I think we could speculate that they would have problems getting traction with wine drinkers just as Harley has in their foray into more sporting oriented cycles. Any thoughts as to what is the possible magic pill for their revival? Are they doomed to a shrinking niche market? Is the company ultimately in danger of bankruptcy? Should I sell my stock?

Edited by gmor

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Sell!

Harley will never be a good investment ever again. Unless you have an older collectable model you will never see a decent return on the sale of your bike either. Harley got too stuck on their antiquated design and "outlaw bad boy" image to progress with the demands of the only part of the market that's growing. Loud slow bikes don't have much appeal to anyone under 50, especially when you can get two of something else that can outperform them in every way for the same $.

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Sell!

Harley will never be a good investment ever again. Unless you have an older collectable model you will never see a decent return on the sale of your bike either. Harley got too stuck on their antiquated design and "outlaw bad boy" image to progress with the demands of the only part of the market that's growing. Loud slow bikes don't have much appeal to anyone under 50, especially when you can get two of something else that can outperform them in every way for the same $.

You certainly make some good points.

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The "Buy American" crowd has been shrinking for 45yrs, and most of Harley's "innovations" over the last twenty years came from their proprietory redesigns of their competitor's better technology. Face it, a 70° V-twin is an out of balance nightmare that has inherent flaws which the company has hung it's hat on for far too long.

 

I did just see a new Harley being introduced that is an E-Bike. The price hasn't been released yet, but I'm sure that it will be another flop because it won't appeal to their base, and it won't be competitively priced. It may well be the last truly new thing that they come out with, and it may be the straw that finally financially breaks that old camel's back.

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If its so doomed, I'll give you $40 a share. :) (Just kidding I don't have the cash to blow right now and my investments are in my tax defferred accounts.)

 

Harley peaked in 2014, then tanked in 2016, and has slowly been crawling back since then.

 

Did you ever wonder why? Well, that's the trick to long term investment.

 

2014 was Project Rushmore where they totally revamped their Tour bike line and introduced their triple flow clothing designed just for the batwing fairing with innovative new design without requiring capital investment. Sales soared as a result and so did profits. 2014 thereabouts was the announcement that Harley was going into the world market by introducing the 500 and 750 and in doing so building three new plants which required massive capital investment. Its good to remember at this point this push is aimed at the overseas markets which both limit motorcycle size and technology. For example, most Asian markets are capped at 500 cc and Europe now requires catalytic converters and ABS. The two overseas plants are in India and China. To test the US market knowing their branding was larger bikes in the US introduced the 750 here. While sales overseas were at a very good rate, about 10% annual a year, the 750 has not been well received in the US. Now take a guess which plant the US 750 is made? Yep, Kansas City.

 

What you are seeing is redepositing to increase profitability and yes, that cost capital. I looked at the 750 which is how I ended up with a Scout. Its truly a smaller Harley when I was looking for more technology but then that smaller Harley, raw Harley, is just what they want for the overseas market.

 

Another little heads up, the Harley Electric motorcycle comes out next year. This will be the first full size electric motorcycle on the market. While Harley isn't expecting it to do much better than the Vrod, I personally don't know myself. They may be in for a pleasant surprise. I'm seeing a hell of a lot of interest in the biker world, I didn't really expect, far more than I did the Vrod. It's target at folks like you that live in urban environments that are not distance riders and to get on the ground floor of the prestige high end commuter market to compete with the high end Asian scooters, which btw living where I do have been pleasantly surprised I'm even starting to see folks tour those things and showing up down here. How well it will do, of course will depend on what price tag it will carry but I anticipate even from just a collector standpoint, Harley is going to be hard pressed to keep up with initial sales demand and the real concern will be sustained sales. Anyway if you had told me a 650cc scooter would be selling well a few years back I would have laughed but they are. I was totally not surprised the Vrod didn't or for that matter the Buell investment would be a dog.

 

This 500/750 and electric bike things are different than the Buell and Vrod investment. With these they aren't going with a "Me Too" approach but instead embracing the cutting edge of new markets even driving those markets with their branding and entire clothing combination. In fact, if you have seen the early electric Harley's that's one mean looking bike that does an under 4 0-60. I don't know how well it will do in the urban market. Only time will tell, however, I suspect its going to do surprisingly well in the tour bike market with riders like me who want a big tour bike for long hauls and a lighter quicker smaller bike for urban riding as a second bike. This is where I see the rumblings that I didn't anticipate and of course the urban commuter market is not a clique so to say and I have no idea there which is their main target market which btw like the 750/500 is not really the US market but the overseas market primarily Asia which is way big on the Harley branding like we are in the US.

 

What we are seeing then short term is both an adjustment to increase profitability and the first time since the early 1900s Harley targeting and pioneering new markets with new products. Long term, I expect the 500/750 to be a hit in the Asian markets especially China, don't know about the electric other than once more probably best in China where electric bikes are more accepted. Europe is up for grabs, the new 750 though not as pretty has a lot more to offer now than the detuned to meet European regulations Triumph but way short of the tried and true BMW 650. My persona opinion having been to China twice and actually visiting motorcycle dealers, custom shops, and having a quite a few friends who collect motorcycles, I don't see how they can lose there unless the world economy tanks. Their economy is just growing so big and so fast even a less than 1% market share would be more motorcycles than Harley has ever made. This I can tell you, there is no place on Earth more into prestige vehicles than China. I never saw so many high end luxury cars in my life. Its like they go from mopeds to Porche's.

 

Anyway, the adjustment we are seeing, we know what it is. Its new capital investment and re-positioning to match market conditions. Its not the Harley of old riding their branding and customer loyalty or "Me Too" till it almost kills them. They're moving to drive new markets.

 

As for Harley resale give me a break already. Harley's are kind of like 4x4 trucks and no matter what model they'll only depreciate so far then never be worth less. If you would have told me the POS AMF Harley's would be worth a damn years ago I'd told you that you were crazy yet now they fetch a premium. Even your Sportster you can probably sell in spring a lot more than you expect.

 

Other than a nice bump next year, its probably not going to be the day trader stock dream but if they hold to their line, long term they're positioning themselves to be the future innovators and finally to be a player on the world stage and in doing so probably a good long term investment.

 

Tj

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Coincidence, paper tonight the local Harley Dealer won the number 1 spot for 2017. They were number 3 and was hoping for a top six placement. It's a massive dealer with all the amenities of a destination shop, lounge, restaurant, bar, bike events, rides, rentals, and weekend live music from recorded artists. Apparently Harley's "Destination" shop idea works. The owner, nice guy btw, has really sank the money in it and its paying off in sales. It's five times larger than the one in the big city the next county over.

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Coincidence, paper tonight the local Harley Dealer won the number 1 spot for 2017. They were number 3 and was hoping for a top six placement. It's a massive dealer with all the amenities of a destination shop, lounge, restaurant, bar, bike events, rides, rentals, and weekend live music from recorded artists. Apparently Harley's "Destination" shop idea works. The owner, nice guy btw, has really sank the money in it and its paying off in sales. It's five times larger than the one in the big city the next county over.

But if the base H-D products fall out of favor what future is there for the company? Window dressing cannot carry a brand. Edited by gmor

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But if the base H-D products fall out of favor what future is there for the company? Window dressing cannot carry a brand.

You need to get out more on your motorcycle bud. Meet people who ride.

 

That shake Longhair is on about, that's put in their bikes on purpose. Most people who ride Harley's these days cut their teeth on Jap bikes. Harley is more than a pretty bike, its a culture which the company has not only embraced but actively promoting. All their dealers, for example are being encouraged to become "Destination" dealers. Some of them like Smoky Mountain Harley here if they had hotel rooms would be a vacation resort. Their entire market focus has shifted and where once it was the bad boys motorcycle, its not a prestige ride world over like owning a Rolls Royce.

 

I'll never forget a gig my band did at a biker private party. We were kind of concerned about the crowd. During our break, almost everyone in the crowd whipped out their cell phones and called home to check on the kids.

 

Its not the Harley of old selling just a branding. I have friends, crazy as hell, that put over 350,000 miles on their Harley's before they trade them, doing one engine rebuild. We're talking car dependability out of air cooled machine. Now they're finally being innovators introducing a bike for the world market and pushing technology with their electric offering. The idea they make crap is pure BS these days. You can still buy a plastic motorcycle for less but its not going to be better. The days of you have to suffer to ride a Harley are over.

 

They're going to have their ups and downs like they did with the Buell buyout and maybe this electric bike but no they're pretty solid compared to the rescue me days. They are the if I could afford it, its what I'd have brand with a pretty good market lock too. Polaris has been trying to break into it for years now, first with Victory and now Indian. They have very focused marketing and its not the cheap and dirty kid market. They tried that and it didn't work. Heck, they tried it numerous times. Now days, their rider is more likely to be a doctor than an outlaw.

 

Tj

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You need to get out more on your motorcycle bud. Meet people who ride.

 

That shake Longhair is on about, that's put in their bikes on purpose. Most people who ride Harley's these days cut their teeth on Jap bikes. Harley is more than a pretty bike, its a culture which the company has not only embraced but actively promoting. All their dealers, for example are being encouraged to become "Destination" dealers. Some of them like Smoky Mountain Harley here if they had hotel rooms would be a vacation resort. Their entire market focus has shifted and where once it was the bad boys motorcycle, its not a prestige ride world over like owning a Rolls Royce.

 

I'll never forget a gig my band did at a biker private party. We were kind of concerned about the crowd. During our break, almost everyone in the crowd whipped out their cell phones and called home to check on the kids.

 

Its not the Harley of old selling just a branding. I have friends, crazy as hell, that put over 350,000 miles on their Harley's before they trade them, doing one engine rebuild. We're talking car dependability out of air cooled machine. Now they're finally being innovators introducing a bike for the world market and pushing technology with their electric offering. The idea they make crap is pure BS these days. You can still buy a plastic motorcycle for less but its not going to be better. The days of you have to suffer to ride a Harley are over.

 

They're going to have their ups and downs like they did with the Buell buyout and maybe this electric bike but no they're pretty solid compared to the rescue me days. They are the if I could afford it, its what I'd have brand with a pretty good market lock too. Polaris has been trying to break into it for years now, first with Victory and now Indian. They have very focused marketing and its not the cheap and dirty kid market. They tried that and it didn't work. Heck, they tried it numerous times. Now days, their rider is more likely to be a doctor than an outlaw.

 

Tj

I am fond of various Harley models but that doesn't address the main point. In addition I am also certainly familiar with the biker culture having owned a Harley for 22 years and attended Bike Week at Daytona 3 times. What this is really about is declining sales that are a result of aging demographics, which is a difficult problem to correct. The whole "destination dealers" and pseudo Disney like biker culture is a window dressing that will have only a superficial effect on the companies downturn. Clothing sales, dealer promotions and funky contrived costume party like "biker" events are becoming a sort of sad parody. As a stock holder I am more than a little concerned that the companies base business of selling motorcycles (imagine that) is in sharp decline that window dressing cannot solve.

Edited by gmor

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Personally, I see it as Harley over saturating the market. Who the heck doesn't own a Harley these days? The banker, the lawyer, the accountant and every other suit wearing Joe Blow is buying a 30 thousand dollar Harley.

 

It's no longer the outlaw image it once was. Especially to the younger crowds. There's nothing unique about your bike when it's sitting next to 50 other Harleys at the local bar.

 

But I'm sure it's not the end of the line for Harley. There's still an incredible draw. Just not to as many as before.

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And..................that's why they are expanding into the Asian market. Sell their stock, your whole 250 shares. When a stocks down is a good time to sell. :laugh:

 

I'm not trying to convince you anyone else to be a biker. That and a dollar fifty will buy you cup of coffee as far as I care. Truth be known that culture died in the 70's and 80's with a needle in one arm, a Raven in their back pocket. and the law breathing down their neck. Harley is the high end product and your liberal buddies trashed the economy to hell and back to where kids flipping burgers or working in call centers for minimum wage don't buy Cadillac's and Mercedes. The Asians who have all our jobs will.

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Coincidence, paper tonight the local Harley Dealer won the number 1 spot for 2017. They were number 3 and was hoping for a top six placement. It's a massive dealer with all the amenities of a destination shop, lounge, restaurant, bar, bike events, rides, rentals, and weekend live music from recorded artists. Apparently Harley's "Destination" shop idea works. The owner, nice guy btw, has really sank the money in it and its paying off in sales. It's five times larger than the one in the big city the next county over.

I'm not sure how long it has been, but the Harley dealership in Southern Illinois won top spot once or twice in the last 5 years or so.

I believe it is called Black Diamond Harley. It seems like almost every week they are sponsoring some sort of motorcycle event.

 

Southern Illinois must be a biker tourist destination for a lot of bikers, and by the sound of them, they are mostly Harley's. They take the River to River Road from the Ohio then up or down the Mississippi River Road. We also have the wine trail for then to visit all the wineries.

 

You would never know there was a turn down in Harley sales from all the packs that descend on us for the weekends..

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Oh no doubt, that's the market now. I can name you dozens of runs that are popular and you just described what they looking for, restruants, shops, river, curvy road, winery, and entire tourist economy will grow around it. There's magazines that's all they publish, which run next year. The number 1 selling Harley and btw number 1 selling motorcycle discounting mopeds in the world is the Harley Streetglide which is their entry level Tour Bike not their Biker classic cruisers though the Hertigae Softali does really well. It combines a little of both worlds with a cruiser look but windshield and bags. That's what I meant about my friends who are batshit crazy. They hear about a run, man, they're gone. One guy who use to own a hard tail Easy Rider clone that he only rode in parades, I won't even ride with him. He thinks a nice weekend run is from here to Bilouxi MS. The entire emphasis of manufacturer clubs isn't what's new but destinations, tours, rides.

 

There's a few nice runs in your area well as far a tour bikes are concerned area. For example, along the Missouri River is becoming very popular and of course, down the Mississippi is a classic.

 

The more kids that get off Playstations and hop on Jap bikes, the better it will be for Harley down the road. What the bigger German and Japanese really just BMW and Honda Goldwing have done has forced Harley to make a better product. I was looking at a Honda Goldwing, their newer F6 when I bought my Harley. I've rented cars not as comfortable on a trip as my bike. My problem isn't can it, its can I. Until I retire, I'm still working too much to do as much touring as I'd like to. Number 1 on my bucket list for retirement is point it that direction and just go.

 

Now the emerging 3rd World industrial economies are just now affluent enough to start doing this. China and India are emerging tour markets. Europe, let's just say they've been at awhile. I have standing offer to ride the Alps on a Harley and would like to do Harley tour of Ireland. Spain is considered one of the ultimates and to tell you the truth Morroco is, no thanks for me but it is.

 

Tj

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Oh no doubt, that's the market now. I can name you dozens of runs that are popular and you just described what they looking for, restruants, shops, river, curvy road, winery, and entire tourist economy will grow around it. There's magazines that's all they publish, which run next year. The number 1 selling Harley and btw number 1 selling motorcycle discounting mopeds in the world is the Harley Streetglide which is their entry level Tour Bike not their Biker classic cruisers though the Hertigae Softali does really well. It combines a little of both worlds with a cruiser look but windshield and bags. That's what I meant about my friends who are batshit crazy. They hear about a run, man, they're gone. One guy who use to own a hard tail Easy Rider clone that he only rode in parades, I won't even ride with him. He thinks a nice weekend run is from here to Bilouxi MS. The entire emphasis of manufacturer clubs isn't what's new but destinations, tours, rides.

 

There's a few nice runs in your area well as far a tour bikes are concerned area. For example, along the Missouri River is becoming very popular and of course, down the Mississippi is a classic.

 

The more kids that get off Playstations and hop on Jap bikes, the better it will be for Harley down the road. What the bigger German and Japanese really just BMW and Honda Goldwing have done has forced Harley to make a better product. I was looking at a Honda Goldwing, their newer F6 when I bought my Harley. I've rented cars not as comfortable on a trip as my bike. My problem isn't can it, its can I. Until I retire, I'm still working too much to do as much touring as I'd like to. Number 1 on my bucket list for retirement is point it that direction and just go.

 

Now the emerging 3rd World industrial economies are just now affluent enough to start doing this. China and India are emerging tour markets. Europe, let's just say they've been at awhile. I have standing offer to ride the Alps on a Harley and would like to do Harley tour of Ireland. Spain is considered one of the ultimates and to tell you the truth Morroco is, no thanks for me but it is.

 

Tj

But as a company the name of the profit game is and will always be selling motorcycles and I have a stack of annual reports that verify this. As I have stated, aging demographics seem to be standing in the way of that goal. Its hard to put a happy face on a company that has posted declines in 11 of the last 12 quarters resulting in the closing of one its major manufacturing facilities. Needless to say for stockholders this is more than a little disturbing! :facepalm: Edited by gmor

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Well if all you do is follow the profit sheets, you have a point. I tried to explain to you why they have in the last 11 out of 12 but if all you want to do is go on trends not futures, sell.

 

I don't own any Harley stock and won't be until I hear from my friends in China how the new bikes are doing and then for the first time ever I may buy some.

 

I've been around awhile. I've watched that company, much like the Big Three, milk its iconic name while selling crap taking short term profits that's almost went bankrupt twice and now watching them first time in my life, embracing new products and new markets and my gaze isn't just the US and neither is theirs. They've already taken the first step, they don't make crap anymore and their market focus shifted from the "I'm a biker" who owns a POS that doesn't run in their garage to the prestige high end tour market to now embracing the overseas market.

 

Much to our chagrin, the world really doesn't revolve around the US anymore. It hasn't for quite a few decades now and the companies that didn't see that, well, they ain't here anymore and their iconic name is being sold by some foreign company and their products made overseas.

 

I once worked for one of those icons myself and now I work for much smaller company that has three plants on three continents. While they're down from 1,400 employees to 400 and buying out their US competitors to stay alive short term, we just got word last week their largest account is coming our way. In simple terms, they're losing jobs still and we're adding them. Like it not, we live the world now and the world is small place compared to 30 years ago.

 

Tj

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Well if all you do is follow the profit sheets, you have a point. I tried to explain to you why they have in the last 11 out of 12 but if all you want to do is go on trends not futures, sell.

 

I don't own any Harley stock and won't be until I hear from my friends in China how the new bikes are doing and then for the first time ever I may buy some.

 

I've been around awhile. I've watched that company, much like the Big Three, milk its iconic name while selling crap taking short term profits that's almost went bankrupt twice and now watching them first time in my life, embracing new products and new markets and my gaze isn't just the US and neither is theirs. They've already taken the first step, they don't make crap anymore and their market focus shifted from the "I'm a biker" who owns a POS that doesn't run in their garage to the prestige high end tour market to now embracing the overseas market.

 

Much to our chagrin, the world really doesn't revolve around the US anymore. It hasn't for quite a few decades now and the companies that didn't see that, well, they ain't here anymore and their iconic name is being sold by some foreign company and their products made overseas.

 

I once worked for one of those icons myself and now I work for much smaller company that has three plants on three continents. While they're down from 1,400 employees to 400 and buying out their US competitors to stay alive short term, we just got word last week their largest account is coming our way. In simple terms, they're losing jobs still and we're adding them. Like it not, we live the world now and the world is small place compared to 30 years ago.

 

Tj

When you have a company whose market capitalization was $18 billion in 2007 and now it is $8.2 billion you have a problem. The simple fact is that they are having trouble selling motorcycles and have discontinued entire product lines and are now closing their number 2 production facility. To suggest that their market strategy has simply shifted to dealer events such as organized rides and the leather fest costume parties is beyond absurd.

Edited by gmor

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Absurd is taking stock advice from someone who needs the government to pay for healthcare and hes' not even on mandatory Medicare.

 

Do you even know what market capitalization is?

 

The HD stock is a mid-$40 stock that hasn't shifted more than $2 in five years and a $10,000 investment ten years ago would have netted you a $5,000 growth at yesterdays close which would have been much more had you sold at its $70 high point in 2014. GE, the definition of a Gold Chip stock varied that much, $2, at a $15 average buy in over the same time periods. Now in case you missed that, that $2 is a lot more shift by percentage for a $15 stock. As for long term history, I wish the hell I was a loyal biker type and when my son was born bought him HD stock because it would be worth five times the buy today that was 1991.

 

Please spare me the BS about keeping a plant making motorcycles that nobody wants would make you sleep better. As a stockholder, they did that for you, the guy lost in whether making a dollar on one part, which part, or ten parts is better.

 

Sell it. Just don't ask me to join your panic because the book I read is you buy low and sell high and I don't see a damn thing that HD is going anywhere for the foreseeable future. In fact, where you see gloom and doom over a plant closing, I see a company shifting to maximize profit.

 

BTW, Please do the world a favor and don't go into company acquisitions because you really don't know WTF you are doing. A stock value is not what a company is worth.

 

Tj

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Absurd is taking stock advice from someone who needs the government to pay for healthcare and hes' not even on mandatory Medicare.

 

Do you even know what market capitalization is?

 

The HD stock is a mid-$40 stock that hasn't shifted more than $2 in five years and a $10,000 investment ten years ago would have netted you a $5,000 growth at yesterdays close which would have been much more had you sold at its $70 high point in 2014. GE, the definition of a Gold Chip stock varied that much, $2, at a $15 average buy in over the same time periods. Now in case you missed that, that $2 is a lot more shift by percentage for a $15 stock. As for long term history, I wish the hell I was a loyal biker type and when my son was born bought him HD stock because it would be worth five times the buy today that was 1991.

 

Please spare me the BS about keeping a plant making motorcycles that nobody wants would make you sleep better. As a stockholder, they did that for you, the guy lost in whether making a dollar on one part, which part, or ten parts is better.

 

Sell it. Just don't ask me to join your panic because the book I read is you buy low and sell high and I don't see a damn thing that HD is going anywhere for the foreseeable future. In fact, where you see gloom and doom over a plant closing, I see a company shifting to maximize profit.

 

BTW, Please do the world a favor and don't go into company acquisitions because you really don't know WTF you are doing. A stock value is not what a company is worth.

 

Tj

Well that is obviously false. The 52 week high for H-D stock was $63.40, so $17.42 higher than yesterdays close at $45.98. In addition sales are down, profit is down, projections are down and a major factory is closing down. It is hard to put a happy face on all of that but I guess you just did?

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Well if you don't understand market averages, I'm not going to teach you. Sell it and be done with it. Take your hit and go home. Somebody else will buy it, decide their cap, and sell it when it gets there and make money at it.

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Well if you don't understand market averages, I'm not going to teach you. Sell it and be done with it. Take your hit and go home. Somebody else will buy it, decide their cap, and sell it when it gets there and make money at it.

So it has or hasn't shifted more than $2 in 5 years?

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So it has or hasn't shifted more than $2 in 5 years?

Not from an average, its seen peaks as high $70 in 2014 and 25 years its average is up five times if you invested your dividend in stock. Over five years, its average is right at the $47 mark, Its down to $45 right now. ITs short term, five year,appears to be about $48. as an average peak. If you are nervous, set a cap on it and when it reaches it sell it. That way you take your profit whatever you decide that should be. $48 would be a good cap point.

 

Just don't be surprised that unless you reinvest that money in a fund that its more volatile. HD is pretty steady as stocks go and stocks are more influenced by speculation than profits.

 

Having done some quick research, I don't see HD as good speculation stock. It appears to be a better dividend stock but then with that, you would have to invest a lot to get a nice income from it. I tell you what would help. If all those nice stock price charts everyone provides had a line we could manipulate through them instead having to finger point at the highs and lows to get price history. The horizontal line then could show price where the up and down line intersects our line.

 

Tj

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Not from an average, its seen peaks as high $70 in 2014 and 25 years its average is up five times if you invested your dividend in stock. Over five years, its average is right at the $47 mark, Its down to $45 right now. ITs short term, five year,appears to be about $48. as an average peak. If you are nervous, set a cap on it and when it reaches it sell it. That way you take your profit whatever you decide that should be. $48 would be a good cap point.

 

Just don't be surprised that unless you reinvest that money in a fund that its more volatile. HD is pretty steady as stocks go and stocks are more influenced by speculation than profits.

 

Having done some quick research, I don't see HD as good speculation stock. It appears to be a better dividend stock but then with that, you would have to invest a lot to get a nice income from it. I tell you what would help. If all those nice stock price charts everyone provides had a line we could manipulate through them instead having to finger point at the highs and lows to get price history. The horizontal line then could show price where the up and down line intersects our line.

 

Tj

I have owned H-D stock continuously since October of 1998, so believe it or not I have a good understanding of it. Your statement is once again false. In just the last 5 years it has traded between $72.88 and 38.72 for a range of $33.96, not to mention a low of $10.10 in February of 2009. This makes it one of the most volatile stocks in my portfolio trading between $10.10 to $72.68 over a 9 year period. But the real question here is not past performance but rather future results which are very questionable at this time.

Edited by gmor

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I realize that I am a late comer to this topic and it may already be dead...and I don't know or care much about the business and stock value side of this discussion. I have been riding motorcycles since I was 15 1/2 and half of my basement is devoted to rebuilding, repairing, maintaining older and newer motorcycles (the other half is a gunsmith and reloading work shop, Colorado School of Trades 1993). I built my first Harley bob job out of a 1961 Duo Glide Panhead (ex-chp bike) when I was 16. If it didn't make it go faster or stop better it came off. If it stayed on, it got chromed. Wish I still had it. I have had Hondas ("67 305 scrambler CL77, 450CL scrambler), Norton ('67 P-11 desert sled wish I had that too), Triumphs, newer harley sportsters and dyna glides, and latest a 2016 Indian Scout. Yeah...I finally bought one that drinks water. This is a big issue in terms of performance. Modern fuel, emission standards and demands for power and torque have exhausted the air cooled v-twin potential. You just can't take a v-twin much above 100 cubic inches or 10 to 1 compression ratios without running into cooling, lubrication, and reliability problems. The V-Rod (Harley and Porsche?) did not make anyone happy with its departure from the Harley style, but taken as simply a performance machine it was and is amazing. KTM liquid cooled, electronic fuel injection, electronic ignition and computer managed mapping can double the horsepower and torque over an 8 valve sohc air/oil cooled 114c.i. Fat Bob with a 75 degree 1300cc 80c.i. Super Duke. I love the simplicity of air cooled v-twins, parallel twins, etc. and the style of vintage bikes. I know a lot of younger builders are grabbing Hondas, Triumphs, Harleys (Sportsters especially) just as canvas to create their own style of bobber,cafe racer, scrambler, brat, or flat tracker and I see a lot of energy and cool stuff there. But when they graduate to something new to tour or do adventure riding they are looking for modern performance and all they can get for the money. Yamaha's FZ07 and FZ09 are a good example of a turn key lollipop for today's 19 year old. I think Harley is on the right track with the 500 and 750 Street series it looks cool, it is fun, and it is less expensive (made in India). They tried to compete with the Indian Scout FTR in last year's Flat Track racing circuit and basically got skunked. The 2018 XG750 is boosting HP and Torque...so we will see. My 69 c.i. 1133c.c. Indian Scout makes 87HP and 77T at 4400 RPM (dyno at wheel, factory claim at crank 100hp and 85 T) and the torque is still pulling at that level past 8000 RPM. Harley does not publish HP and a recent comparo article in Rider rated the Indian 111 big twin, the Harley 114 big twin (with partial oil and liquid and air cool), and the Yamaha Air cooled Venture big twin all at just over 100 T at 2500 rpm or so through 5000 rpm redline. Okay for touring long distance on 800 pound bikes but not very fun for urban youngsters. The Indian Scout is so much faster, better acceleration, better mid range, better top end and it's just a mid size mid range sport cruiser. Most fun bike I ever rode. I know it is liquid cooled, but the overall style is still cool. Harley can do better with the street, and maybe should take another look at the V-Rod. It or something like it could still be a hit, just for a different group/demographic. Just like the EPA and Euro4, liquid cooling, ride by wire, F.I., ECCI, riding modes, ABS,traction control, wheelie control, semi active suspension etc. are here to stay. I hope chrome laced wheels are too...

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I also went to CST for gunsmithing ('77-'78) and I raced bikes for years. I gave up on Harley entirely back in the 70's because by '77 dollar for dollar they didn't hold a candle performance-wise to just about any other manufacturer.

I'm getting too old to be competitive anymore, but I still have three SV1000 v-twins I play with....a naked, a highly customized "S", and a track bike.

 

If I were younger (with money to burn) and was interested in having fun on a v-twin, I'd look no further than a KTM 1290 Super Duke, or even it's predecessor the RC8. The new Super Duke has all the electronic gizz-whizzes (a selection of menu selectable modes), whereas the RC8 is a lot more basic, but either one has the suspension, HP, and T to keep your attention while having a riot!

 

https://youtu.be/NOCEesZEIo0

 

https://youtu.be/2mbmuITe0_A

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Hey there y'all new to the forum so, figuring I'll jump right in where I have a little knowledge. HD has been in decline for quite some time now. Their market people chose the weekend warrior demographic, doctors, lawyers and such to take the brand forward. Choosing to alienate those that had carried the brand loyalty through generations. In this process they brought the price up as these so called professionals could afford the margin. Having lost the majority of the true iron horse cowboys to the likes of Victory and Indian. I don't see them getting many back. That York PA facility took a hit not long ago, by way of job cuts and market share. Good to see they are bringing the jobs back.

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